Student Count – Where are We? Depends on Where You Look…

I have had several people ask me where we are in regard to student enrollment.  The short answer is – we don’t know yet.  In addition to not having the verified certified count back from the state, there is also the issue of how pre-schoolers will impact the count with the award of the preschool grant.  But we can look at K-12 counts.

Remember that the student count (actual number of students) differs from the certified enrollment count (used for budget purposes).  As is witnessed in the Oct 2008 certified count, the building total was reported as 4,534 yet the certified enrollment was 4,340.2

This is because the certified enrollment count is determined by a formula which weights students based on typical costs. For example, preschool students are determined to take less funding than a full-time k-12 students so the weighting is set at less than 1 and special education weightings are greater than 1.Every election , there is discussion of the numbers of students in the district. A recent editorial suggested the district had lost 500 students.  So, I checked the Department of Education website on the number of students in school districts.If we go back 11 years to the ‘99-’00 school year, one sees there has been a drop in student counts.  If you look at the gap between ‘99-’00 and the ‘09-’10 student counts you will find a gap of 291 students.  The gap between maximum and minimum over the same time frame is 382.  If you go back farther you could find a bigger drop.

 

School Year	K-12 Count
‘99-’00	4,690
‘00-’01	4,702
‘01-’02	4,629
‘02-’03	4,563
‘03-’04	4,447
‘04-’05	4,332
‘05-’06	4,335
‘06-’07	4,320
‘07-’08	4,353
‘08-’09	4,353
‘09-’10	4,399

Long-term trends add value to a discussion, but more recent trends tend to better inform current conditions.   If we go back to the ‘04-’05 school year and use the mid-October 2009 numbers provided to the school board, the number of students in grades K-12 has gone from 4,332 in ‘04-’05 to 4,399 in ‘09-’10.  The overall numbers suggest a stable student count, up only 67 kids (1.5%). 

What is hidden by the overall, or aggregate, numbers is the growth at the K-5 level.  From ‘04-’05 through ‘08-’09, there was an increase of 73 elementary students (4.0%).  Including counts provided this mid-October, the increase rises to 150 elementary students (7.6%).

It is this growth at the elementary level that drove the need to put kindergarteners in Northwood and the current emphasis on both short-term and long-term facilities planning. So, I think the numbers can tell different stories depending on the timeframe that is examined.  

As part of the planning process, ones learns not to look too far back or too far forward because it is too hard to predict too far out into the future and conditions change.  I’ve heard planners use 5 years as a reference on several occasions. 

That said, the last 5 or 6 years show steady to slowly growing student counts along with some additional growth at the elementary level.  Yet some discussions of enrollment focus on massive drops in student enrollment.  When this happens, it is important to know that it refers to a time frame farther back in time – perhaps more than a decade. 

If it does happen, I guess the question I would ask is – why?

Dr. Dave