A few posts back, we explored the concept of a “target” capacity. That is, the amount of capacity the proposed long-range facilities plan should account for. Per the value in Struxture’s report, we determined the “target” capacity would be 2,200 by 2030.
To recall, this is arrived at by using the projected enrollment of 2,000 by the year 2030 and adding 10%, or 200. 2,000 + 200 = 2,200
Estimating Growth
From the 2011-2012 school year, the estimate is that in 19 years (2030-2031) the elementary student population will reach 2,000. Using the Nov 14 building-grade counts showing 1,883 elementary students this year ( ACSD School Board Mtg – 11-14-11 – Elementary Building-Grade Counts 2011-2012 ), that’s approximately 120 students in the next 20 years – or about 6 elementary students a year.
To be a bit more precise (which is misleading since enrollment fluctuates greatly),
- Change in Elementary Students = 117 (2,000 – 1,883)
- Change in Time = 19 years (2011-2012 to 2030-2031)
- Average = 6.2 Elementary Students per year
The table below uses the above “rate” of growth in elementary students (always rounding to a whole student), adds a 10% cushion, and presents the rolling “target” capacity for 2011-2012 through 2030-2031.
| School Year | Elementary Students (est) | Cushion (%) | “Target” Capacity |
| 2011-2012 | 1,883 | 188 | 2,071 |
| 2012-2013 | 1,889 | 189 | 2,078 |
| 2013-2014 | 1,895 | 190 | 2,085 |
| 2014-2015 | 1,901 | 190 | 2,092 |
| 2015-2016 | 1,908 | 191 | 2,098 |
| 2016-2017 | 1,914 | 191 | 2,105 |
| 2017-2018 | 1,920 | 192 | 2,112 |
| 2018-2019 | 1,926 | 193 | 2,119 |
| 2019-2020 | 1,932 | 193 | 2,125 |
| 2020-2021 | 1,938 | 194 | 2,132 |
| 2021-2022 | 1,945 | 194 | 2,139 |
| 2022-2023 | 1,951 | 195 | 2,146 |
| 2023-2024 | 1,957 | 196 | 2,153 |
| 2024-2025 | 1,963 | 196 | 2,159 |
| 2025-2026 | 1,969 | 197 | 2,166 |
| 2026-2027 | 1,975 | 198 | 2,173 |
| 2027-2028 | 1,982 | 198 | 2,180 |
| 2028-2029 | 1,988 | 199 | 2,186 |
| 2029-2030 | 1,994 | 199 | 2,193 |
| 2030-2031 | 2,000 | 200 | 2,200 |
As you can see, the simplistic model takes us from the 1,883 reported in Nov (see link above) to the projected 2,200 “target” capacity for 2030.
So how does this match up with the capacity being created in the proposed facilities plan?
Dr. Dave
