One of the things that is difficult about long-range planning is the ability to accurately predict the future (if any of you have that figured out, please let me know). Trying to determine the number of students in any given year is a rough guess to say the least, and with construction (hopefully) underway soon it will be equally difficult to determine the amount of space available (usable space) and odd demands created by staging work.
Timing of Work on Elementary Buildings
That said, the primary document being used as a guide for the concepts of organizing the work is the facilities directors outline – ACSD School Board Mtg – 10-24-11 – Exhibit D-2 – District Long-Range Facilities Plan. This outline of work shows work on the elementary buildings coming first, ending in 2019.
The community facilities committee saw another version of the plan, with the site of the 4-unit school places at George Washington Carver – ( Long Range Facilities Concept – Carver Avenue Option – CFC Jan 02 2012 ). It has work on the elementaries completed in 2018.
KEY POINT – Though there may be too much going on to get a sense of capacity need and availability while work is being done on the elementary buildings, we should be able to look at the time frame when they are projected to be done. With the elementary work projected to be done prior to the half-way mark of getting to 2030, the level of capacity needed may be different than we think.
Target, Proposed & Extra Capacity
The table below pulls from the previous posts and puts the “Target” capacity desired and the “Proposed” capacity in the same chart. The difference is what is labeled “Extra”
| School Year | “Target” Capacity | Proposed Capacity | “Extra” Capacity |
| 2011-2012 | 2,071 | ||
| 2012-2013 | 2,078 | ||
| 2013-2014 | 2,085 | ||
| 2014-2015 | 2,092 | ||
| 2015-2016 | 2,098 | ||
| 2016-2017 | 2,105 | ||
| 2017-2018 | 2,112 | ||
| 2018-2019 | 2,119 | ||
| 2019-2020 | 2,125 | 2,505 | 380 |
| 2020-2021 | 2,132 | 2,505 | 373 |
| 2021-2022 | 2,139 | 2,505 | 366 |
| 2022-2023 | 2,146 | 2,505 | 359 |
| 2023-2024 | 2,153 | 2,505 | 352 |
| 2024-2025 | 2,159 | 2,505 | 346 |
| 2025-2026 | 2,166 | 2,505 | 339 |
| 2026-2027 | 2,173 | 2,505 | 332 |
| 2027-2028 | 2,180 | 2,505 | 325 |
| 2028-2029 | 2,186 | 2,505 | 319 |
| 2029-2030 | 2,193 | 2,505 | 312 |
| 2030-2031 | 2,200 | 2,505 | 305 |
NOTE – The “proposed” capacity number is not estimated until after the elementary work is projected to be completed.
For every year, the capacity created at the end of the proposed long-range facilities plan is greater than the “target” capacity. The “extra” capacity ranges from 305 in 2030-2021 up to 380 in 2019-2020.
Closing Thoughts
The numbers show the capacity generated in the proposed facilities plan far exceeds what is needed. Remember, the “extra” capacity is above and beyond the projected enrollment AND a cushion.
Important Note – Using the numbers provided in the certified enrollment count ( ACSD School Board Mtg – 12-05-11 – Certified Enrollment Count – Oct 03 2011 ), there were 289 students enrolled in Mitchell Elementary & 278 in Edwards Elementary.
This means that if the elementary buildings were completed in 2018-2019, 380 “extra” spaces would be in the system.
As proposed facilities plan will create ”extra” capacity in excess of a 2-unit school. This means the board should re-examine the proposed long-range facilities plan and make adjustments.
The last thing this community needs is to build new schools only to have to close another one.
Next, I think we should look at financial information.
Dr. Dave
